Posts by indy

    They've been changing language again to be a Service. :laughing

    The ToS for YouTube has always called it a Platform, but it also has the caveat every user agrees to when signing up: "or may cause harm to YouTube, our users, or third parties, we may remove or take down that Content in our discretion." What "cause harm" means is up to the mods and their bosses, and they're San Fran based liberals last I checked so that's the company culture like it or not.

    I guess it is national embarrass for trump not knowing that a fucking sport team like KCC is a Missouri team.

    More silly than that. Both states are celebrating the "home team". I was on a Southwest flight from KC while the game was going on. Loud plane lol.

    This guy came up with De Luce, that described the birth of the universe as an explosion. First real try at tying "heaven & earth" together with physics.

    Fast forward about 700 years and we get to

    Georges Lemaitre, a Catholic Priest from Belgium and astronomer, whom's scientific observations of space laid the ground work for the Big Bang Theory, which was confirmed by Hubble.

    The biggest let down? 155mph autonomous 16 person underground tube transportation network. Vegas threw a lot of money at Boring Company for the concept. What's getting delivered is a 0.83 mile tube from a parking lot to a convention center, with Model 3s using human drivers. A year late, 5x over budget, none of the capability. Everything you expect from government projects. I want that and my jetpack dammit.


    That's no Alien Dreadnaught. It's car lines under a tent. The paint booth is the same one used at VW TN which has double their output. Poor environmental controls Under The Big Top led to a lot of cracked plastic assemblies that were repaired with electrical tape on the fly to meet delivery goals. Evidence keeps showing up in cars. You should buy two. Elon Says they're appreciating assets.


    "Elon Says" "You can't have people in the production line itself, otherwise you drop to people speed. So there will be no people in production process itself. People will maintain the machines, upgrade them, and deal with anomalies." -On the failed Alien Dreadnaught


    "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely." -on Full Self Driving, 3 years ago

    "Teslas are appreciating assets and will be worth $250,000 due to software updates." -Autonomy Day investors call.

    "Supercharging is and always will be free." -from the Battery Swap credit scam presentation

    "Well, I feel confident saying that Tesla does not need to ever raise another financing round." -Q4 2011 Conference Call. $7 billion in raises followed.


    "I will announce locations for between two and four Gigafactories later this year - probably four." -Musk 2017 TED Talk, definitely NOT pumping a growth narrative stock, which would be illegal #fundingsecured


    "First solar roof deployments will start next summer" -Elon Musk, 2017

    That's the customer price, not the launch cost for SpaceX.


    You don't know what the launch cost is. It's private, and they're expected to have underbid their actual costs. Underbid not the opponents, but their own launch costs, fueled on private investment cash. Rocket powered landings, to land, were performed by the DC-XA Delta Clipper in 96. Early flights were in New Mexico and landed on dirt. SpaceX grosshopper didn't roll around until 2012, well after the intense private rocket competitions of 2005-2009 that had guys like John Carmack in the mix.

    Falcon 9 Block 5, no rocket has more than 4 launches, and they are thoroughly refurbished between every launch. No existing Block 5 booster they have is currently planned for a fifth launch. That's the actual rocket status from SpaceX btw, "Refurbishing for launch". It takes over half of the original rocket's build time still to overhaul it and certify it for the next flight and a parallel supply chain to the 6 in construction at all times.

    I will give you this. I didn't (and still don't) believe Freemont can continue to maintain production at that facility.

    Government Motors and Toyoda couldn't do it. Just to much overhead and tax strain in Cali. I figured they would just end up dumping that facility all together but right now they need the floorspace.


    That was the Alien Dreadnaught myth and oem dinosaur narrative. The human-free factory without the labor costs. Robots so fast you have to pump in nitrogen to lower air resistance. It's up there with the Battery Swap scam.

    Fremont facility is their R&D headquarters complete with it's own test track.


    But of course you knew that right?

    Yeah, that's how they ended up with weathering issues. It's too nice there.

    If people are just handing out free factories, fuck it, ride it to $5000. If you short anything, it's the junk bond CDS insurance before end of this quarter where they normally post big q1 losses if they choose to do any firefighting of problem areas and deplete cash reserves.


    Not according to their public financial reports. R&D spending is minimal, capex is still less than depreciation, ASP is way down from model mix shift. They're making modest service expansions but it's not keeping pace with fleet growth. For Q3 it took environmental credit swaps to oems and claimed FSD revenue based on the Smart Summon release to get into the black. They keep rolling back the FSD capability claims every EoQ conference call, that lets them justify more revenue on the books, it's genius.

    SpaceX is private. We only know that it's heavily subsidized, draws private market investment, they intentionally underbid early on to get market share, and are currently the most expensive ISS cargo service except for I think Cygnus, but we know what that one really costs as Orbital ATK is public so there's transparency. SpaceX specifically does not publish their numbers. The reason why nobody has manufactured reusable rockets is the cost of running parallel construction and refurbishment supply chains. Bean counters have never made the math work given projected flight numbers to make something commercially viable against Soyuz and with $60 mil for a refurbed 2 stage Falcon 9 that's only $62 million new, they've got a hell of a long way to go. That's assuming it's priced to make a profit to begin with and not a giant dumpster fire of private investment cash. I hope they make it.

    Speaking of counting beans, Starlink from SpaceX projections is a $50 billion system that depreciates $10 billion per year. 20% annual replenishment rate required. Ouch.

    Might want to pay attention to the segment towards the bottom titled "shorting is for suckers".


    I don't short Tesla. It's not a bad idea given that they continue to lose money on every car sold despite peak factory output, but the cult fanaticism is unparalleled. It's the most mythologized brand on the entire planet, and that's worth a lot of money no matter product quality or profitability without gimmicks.

    I thought it was cool looking, but I admittedly have terrible taste in cars. If they could make those body panels, the simple shapes would help go a long way to patching over their chronic panel gap issues.


    The Semi is apparently abandonware now. It's disassembled and shoved off to a corner next to the scrap piles. No CAPEX for production that's supposed to be under a year away. The kwH/$ doesn't work.