Prices are finally starting to drop a bit in some large cities. The last 7 years were very similar to 2001-2008 and 1987-1994 which means the next 7 years will be similar to 2008-2015 and 1994-2001. The stock market gains of 1994-2001 helped offset the down real estate market back then. Prices essentially just stayed close to the same over that period. 2008-2015 stocks cratered initially, but came back with the help of something nobody ever expected - Quantitative Easing introduced to America by the Federal Reserve. What will they do this time to prevent a total collapse? Or, maybe this bubble economy was created to bring about the crash to end all crashes? We will likely know looking back 7 years from now if we are still around. Real Estate has been cyclical especially since we entered the fiat currency age, about 7 years up, then 7 years flat or down.
Interestly, when Carter was President housing prices went up which was sort of odd with inflation and rising interest rates. I think people in general didn't trust the new fiat currency much and wanted to invest more in tangeble assets as the stock market was not the same investment vehicle it is today. Housing then softened up late 1980. The first 2 1/2 years under Reagan were not good for housing as mortages rates climbed to all time high as Paul Volker raised rates at the Fed to fight inflation.
Part of the problem is that a large part of your 0% federal reserve interest rate went into buying up homes. The number of corporately owned and then rented residential dwellings is at an outrageous rate currently.
I would have canoed them all in Lake Nevahappun.
Find a nice place that's not connected to you. Siliconed the tops. And buried them.
I still think that nukes are the only logical way out for Putin. But I also think that the window on using them is closing.
I'm still working on 20, mostly because this lake is very small and doesn't get steady wind.
You lost me Dan. "Debt incurred from the Federal Reserve is the LITERAL definition of inflation." Did you mean consumer debt incurred as a result of Federal reserve policy and additional consumer debt equals more inflation? That sentence doesn't make sense so I am trying to guess what you are trying to communicate with that statement. The second part "money fabricated from thin air competing with real earned money is what creates bubbles that can pop later." is crystal clear and I 100% agree.
It is usually true that people don't buy a new car and then go get a job. They do buy more cars and homes though when they can afford to. Low interest rates = lower payments = more buying. Higher than new MSRP was a result of many things. Shortage of new vehicles being produced due to things like chips not being available because the plant they were produced in burned down, along with people getting a load of free money from the government to name a couple of the big reasons.
Federal reserve debt and money created from thin air is the same thing. That's how the Federal Reserve works. They create the money from thin air, then loan it out at 0% (practically) interest.
"youths"
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There are a LOT of shops shutting down in Philly because of this stuff.
Display MoreWell I mostly was not being facetious in that post to answer that question. I appreciate your economic perspective and interest in economics and the economy.
Would you agree that all the rate increases by the Federal Reserve has had an effect on the housing market? 30 year Mortgages have gone from 2.75% to 6% with all the rate increases. Prior to that rates on 30 year mortgages dropped significantly leading to a housing bubble in many parts of the country. It also boosted auto sales and slaes of other big ticket items as payments were lower with lower rates.
I would agree that to grow the economy requires increasing productivity, but to increase productivity there has to be increased demand which is where the debt somes in. When I mention debt I am talking about consumer debt, not National debt.
Interest rates on consumer debt has been slowly dropping for the last 40 years. Yes, it goes up sometimes but the trend line has been lower. Meanwhile consumer debt over the last 40 years has increased substancially, hence the success of franctional reserve banking.
I have to disagree with your assessment that the standard of living is the highest it has ever been in the USA. Don't forget that not too long after they implemented the fiat system, they also rigged the numbers and how they arre tracked. Things like unemploment, Cost of living etc. This was necessary for people to buy into the new fiat system. There are still people that track the real numbers and sell the information to big corporations and such that need real numbers - http://www.shadowstats.com
Franctional reserve banking is an interesting anmimal in and of itself. It requires debt.
Debt incurred from the Federal Reserve is the LITERAL definition of inflation. On top of that, money fabricated from thin air competing with real earned money is what creates bubbles that can pop later.
I don't really care what effect the relatively low interest rates have on the Housing Market, or the Auto Market. They follow the economy, not lead it. People don't buy a new car, and then go and get a job. It's the other way around. Or at least it should be. (See the other threads here talking about people getting offers on their used cars higher than the new MSRP.)
Increases in productivity comes naturally. The only thing in its way is Government Intervention and "free" federal reserve money. Both of which stifle winners AND losers in the market.
The russians were the kings of squirrelling away weapons covered in cosmoline to be used later. Are they even fucking that up?
Display MoreThe private Federal Reserve mostly controls the markets. They can juice the economy or make it crash if they want. Nothing juices the economy quite like handing out 6 Trillion in free money though along with zero percent Fed rates and Quantative Easing which includes Bond buying.
To grow the American economy requires Americans aquiring more debt. The American dollar has been a fiat currency since 8/15/1971.
The standard of living has dropped significantly decade after decade despite what the fake numbers say.
Meanwhile Mega corporations continue to lead the charge in destroying freedoms, funding socialist policies, getting laws passed that prevents competition and that hurt small businesses, while the workers contribute to 401k's which ultimately funds their own demise along with future American generations.
I can't tell if you're being facetious or not.
For the most part, the Federal Reserve does **NOT** control the economy. They control the stock market. I'd guess that 75-90% of all the "free" (0% interest) money goes straight into inflating the NYSE and making the banks and other rich people more money.
Conversely, stopping the "free" money causes the gravy train to come to an end. Still not the Economy, though.
ACTUALLY growing the economy requires increasing productivity. THAT is the source of real wealth. America, and its citizens, separately, are being crushed under a mountain of debt. Debt STIFLES the economy because it takes 3-4 dollars to pay it back, in the long run, for every dollar borrowed.
The standard of living is the highest its ever been. BUT it hasn't grown at a commensurate rate since the destruction of the gold standard and the implementation of a fiat system.
People buoyed by a gigantic welfare state aren't motivated to work? Color me shocked! SHOCKED!
No, really. This is shocked face.
You would have sold more stuff if it were a bluegrass band.
This area is very yuppy. Oddly enough, I sell more combat knives and the like to yuppies. And I sell more kitchen knives at the gun shows.
I'm betting the international community will retaliate if Russia uses nukes.
Retaliate... how? They've already been cut off from international shipments. Russia has already cut off Europe from gas, even though the europeans are BEGGING for it.
If Germany, Poland, France... attack Russia, the hatred against conscription would flip in a heartbeat. And Russia has ICBM's. They don't.
Nice! A friend of a friend actually got a picture of me.
I'd be worried about Ohio
Yeah, it's a clear rip off of the Danger Closeness of Ohio meme.
Putin is going to have a tough time selling the use of Nukes in the Ukraine. You can't invade and lose THEN nuke. It's a losing formula.
Says who? For Putin and the ruling class in Russia, getting all the new conscripts killed AND losing the war will have bigger personal consequences to them than coming out with nukes and soon. The russians would rather win by nukes, then lose otherwise.
If Georgia is going to do something, they should do it soon.
The National Guard used to go around to gun shows letting kids play with their Stinger Simulator / Training tool. I wonder if the stinger still works the same way as it did back then.
The "little" craft fair at a local farm I didn't even know was there turned out to be a blast and a wild success.
Sold some axes, paring knives and even a few chef's knives. There was a good bluesey band there with great food and good people.
One positive would be that Russia would be kicked out of the UN
The UN named a REAL LIFE CANNIBAL as the head of their Tourism Committee. Russia nuking someone would just give them a better parking spot in front of the building.
