Posts by Danneskjold

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    Prices are finally starting to drop a bit in some large cities. The last 7 years were very similar to 2001-2008 and 1987-1994 which means the next 7 years will be similar to 2008-2015 and 1994-2001. The stock market gains of 1994-2001 helped offset the down real estate market back then. Prices essentially just stayed close to the same over that period. 2008-2015 stocks cratered initially, but came back with the help of something nobody ever expected - Quantitative Easing introduced to America by the Federal Reserve. What will they do this time to prevent a total collapse? Or, maybe this bubble economy was created to bring about the crash to end all crashes? We will likely know looking back 7 years from now if we are still around. Real Estate has been cyclical especially since we entered the fiat currency age, about 7 years up, then 7 years flat or down.


    Interestly, when Carter was President housing prices went up which was sort of odd with inflation and rising interest rates. I think people in general didn't trust the new fiat currency much and wanted to invest more in tangeble assets as the stock market was not the same investment vehicle it is today. Housing then softened up late 1980. The first 2 1/2 years under Reagan were not good for housing as mortages rates climbed to all time high as Paul Volker raised rates at the Fed to fight inflation.


    Part of the problem is that a large part of your 0% federal reserve interest rate went into buying up homes. The number of corporately owned and then rented residential dwellings is at an outrageous rate currently.

    You lost me Dan. "Debt incurred from the Federal Reserve is the LITERAL definition of inflation." Did you mean consumer debt incurred as a result of Federal reserve policy and additional consumer debt equals more inflation? That sentence doesn't make sense so I am trying to guess what you are trying to communicate with that statement. The second part "money fabricated from thin air competing with real earned money is what creates bubbles that can pop later." is crystal clear and I 100% agree.


    It is usually true that people don't buy a new car and then go get a job. They do buy more cars and homes though when they can afford to. Low interest rates = lower payments = more buying. Higher than new MSRP was a result of many things. Shortage of new vehicles being produced due to things like chips not being available because the plant they were produced in burned down, along with people getting a load of free money from the government to name a couple of the big reasons.




    Federal reserve debt and money created from thin air is the same thing. That's how the Federal Reserve works. They create the money from thin air, then loan it out at 0% (practically) interest.

    "youths"


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    There are a LOT of shops shutting down in Philly because of this stuff.


    Debt incurred from the Federal Reserve is the LITERAL definition of inflation. On top of that, money fabricated from thin air competing with real earned money is what creates bubbles that can pop later.


    I don't really care what effect the relatively low interest rates have on the Housing Market, or the Auto Market. They follow the economy, not lead it. People don't buy a new car, and then go and get a job. It's the other way around. Or at least it should be. (See the other threads here talking about people getting offers on their used cars higher than the new MSRP.)



    Increases in productivity comes naturally. The only thing in its way is Government Intervention and "free" federal reserve money. Both of which stifle winners AND losers in the market.


    I can't tell if you're being facetious or not.


    For the most part, the Federal Reserve does **NOT** control the economy. They control the stock market. I'd guess that 75-90% of all the "free" (0% interest) money goes straight into inflating the NYSE and making the banks and other rich people more money.


    Conversely, stopping the "free" money causes the gravy train to come to an end. Still not the Economy, though.



    ACTUALLY growing the economy requires increasing productivity. THAT is the source of real wealth. America, and its citizens, separately, are being crushed under a mountain of debt. Debt STIFLES the economy because it takes 3-4 dollars to pay it back, in the long run, for every dollar borrowed.



    The standard of living is the highest its ever been. BUT it hasn't grown at a commensurate rate since the destruction of the gold standard and the implementation of a fiat system.

    I'm betting the international community will retaliate if Russia uses nukes.


    Retaliate... how? They've already been cut off from international shipments. Russia has already cut off Europe from gas, even though the europeans are BEGGING for it.


    If Germany, Poland, France... attack Russia, the hatred against conscription would flip in a heartbeat. And Russia has ICBM's. They don't.

    Putin is going to have a tough time selling the use of Nukes in the Ukraine. You can't invade and lose THEN nuke. It's a losing formula.


    Says who? For Putin and the ruling class in Russia, getting all the new conscripts killed AND losing the war will have bigger personal consequences to them than coming out with nukes and soon. The russians would rather win by nukes, then lose otherwise.


    If Georgia is going to do something, they should do it soon.




    The National Guard used to go around to gun shows letting kids play with their Stinger Simulator / Training tool. I wonder if the stinger still works the same way as it did back then.

    The "little" craft fair at a local farm I didn't even know was there turned out to be a blast and a wild success.




    Sold some axes, paring knives and even a few chef's knives. There was a good bluesey band there with great food and good people.

    One positive would be that Russia would be kicked out of the UN


    The UN named a REAL LIFE CANNIBAL as the head of their Tourism Committee. Russia nuking someone would just give them a better parking spot in front of the building.