63 cases in the US.

  • If I have country A with X amount of cases, and country B with X amount of cases, and a 2% mortality rate, which country will have more deaths?


    I have problems predicting with unknown unknowns, you apparently do not. An interesting trait for an engineer.


    I certainly cannot predict a number of fatalities from say Germany without the proper data.

    Any engineer should know how to make estimates based on defined assumptions. Hell, I'm sure you could do the same... but it's just not quite obtuse enough for your tastes.


    I'm ASSuming that deaths from Coronavirus in the U.S. will be similar in proportion to those in Italy. Feel free to debate that assumption- but I'm basing it on the fact that the U.S. and Italy are both developed Western countries, and both had too-little/too-late testing schemes.


    So... Italy has attributed a bit over 13,000 deaths to the virus at this point on the curve... and it's far from over.


    I am reckoning that it is therefore a reasonable estimate that at the same point on the curve (which we haven't got to yet), 13,000 * (327/60) = 70850


    So based on my own *ballpark* estimate, I think that Trump's own low-end estimate of 100,000 dead Americans is way too plausible.


    Have fun nitpicking :thumbsup


    images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSfqYsdUX-U7mvE0xqoeejKRNMZZiNPsy79eliKsvv_Pl2bydmA&usqp=CAU

  • What we still don't know is how long this thing has been here and how many have already died attributed to the flu. We also have no idea how many have actually been infected, here, Italy, anywhere.

  • 5,000 cases in the state of GA right now. Nearly 1,000 deaths yesterday. I say as many as 250,000 die from this in 2020 in the US alone.

    Governments rest on the consent of the governed, and that it is the right of the people to alter or abolish them at will whenever they become destructive of the ends for which they were established. - President Jefferson Davis

  • What we still don't know is how long this thing has been here and how many have already died attributed to the flu. We also have no idea how many have actually been infected, here, Italy, anywhere.

    We do know that they're piling dead bodies into reefer trailers in NYC.


    Must be a coincidence.

  • Also, unless something drastic happens to curb the spread, we will have 25% unemployment by August.

    Governments rest on the consent of the governed, and that it is the right of the people to alter or abolish them at will whenever they become destructive of the ends for which they were established. - President Jefferson Davis

  • Also, unless something drastic happens to curb the spread, we will have 25% unemployment by August.

    We have to get the antibody testing widespread so people who have already been infected and are immune can get back to work.

  • Yeah, but they may be typhoid Marys.

    Rock-Ribbed Capitalist

    No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot - Mark Twain

    TWAT on 10/14/2019 :

    Lemme say that again... I don't care. If. The accusations against Trump. Are factual. Or not.

  • yep, you can become infected with it again, that is the tough thing. You may recover but unlike most virii you build no immunity to it.

    Governments rest on the consent of the governed, and that it is the right of the people to alter or abolish them at will whenever they become destructive of the ends for which they were established. - President Jefferson Davis

  • 450 people die every day in NYC without this virus.


    Correction, that's for the state.


    So this virus will soon kill more people per day there than all other causes combined... How can you not see that? How can you not see the horror in that?

    "With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably."

  • The denial is strong in some of these folks.


    They'll come around... and pretend they've understood this situation the whole time.

  • I'm pretty sure this is just speculation. Antibodies ARE immunity.

    you are correct on the definition but the natural antibodies do not remain effective very long, you can become reinfected. That was one of the first things revealed about the wuhan virus.

    Governments rest on the consent of the governed, and that it is the right of the people to alter or abolish them at will whenever they become destructive of the ends for which they were established. - President Jefferson Davis

  • Im sure many of us that have travelled broadly and widely have a good quiver of antibodies.


    I saw where Prince Chuck has miraculously recovered in record time.


    71 yrs old. In reasonable health.


    He shook off his cold.

  • The denial is strong in some of these folks.


    They'll come around... and pretend they've understood this situation the whole time.

    https://www.sciencetimes.com/a…-possible-experts-say.htm

    Governments rest on the consent of the governed, and that it is the right of the people to alter or abolish them at will whenever they become destructive of the ends for which they were established. - President Jefferson Davis